Review of Fuel Price Forecasting

Client Challenge
Review of Fuel Price Forecasting for the Dept of Energy & Climate Change.

Our approach
In collaboration with the Spatial Economics & Econometrics Centre (SEEC) and the Centre for Energy Economics Research & Policy (CEERP), both at Heriot-Watt University we were appointed to provide academic review of the elements of DECC’s Energy Demand models intended firstly to capture the dependencies between four macro-economic variables – GDP, GVA, population and households, and secondly, to produce projected growth and/or realised values in each variable for the period 2013-35. The project required statistical analysis in R and provided the client with insights into the unexpected results produced by the models and enabled them to reach conclusions over the best procedures to use for dealing with uncertainty in DECC’s Energy and Emissions Projections.